Predicting the 2025 Virginia Democratic Party LG and AG Nominees (Plus a VA HOD Status Update)
AKA: Let's try this Substack thing again
Virginia, how I’ve missed you. Tuesday, we see the first step towards the 2025 general election in the Commonwealth.
With each party already having their nominees for Governor (Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears for Republicans and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger for Democrats), and Republicans having their nominees for LG and AG locked in with incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares running for re-election and John Reid getting the nomination unopposed after Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity dropped out due to heart surgery and complications after the fact (which sucks, hope you’re doing well Pat).
That leaves only contested primaries for Democrats nominees for LG and AG. Similar to 2021, we have a much larger field for the LG race compared to the two person race for AG on the Democrat side. With that in mind, I’ll start with the AG primary.
A Coronation for Jay Jones or Does Shannon Taylor Pull of a Shocker?
Four years ago, Jay Jones fell by only 13 points to then incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring. How well Jones performed in that primary, then as only a delegate for two terms at that point, was a surprise to a lot of people.
It may have ended up being for the best for his political future though- Jones almost certainly would’ve joined the rest of the ticket in falling to the Republican wave that swept through Virginia that November. Instead, he placed himself as the favorite for the Democrats candidate for the AG office for this year.
That’s held firm for much of the cycle thus far. Jones has led the way in fundraising and endorsements from the start, with major financial backing from Clean Virginia and endorsements from the last two Democrat Governors in Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam.
Just as it was in 2021, Jones is expected to do very well in his home base of Hampton Roads. Jones also did as well as he did four years ago by wrapping up Southside Virginia and nearly breaking through around Richmond. Whether he can do that again is a question this year though.
His opponent, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, hopes to use her over ten year career as Henrico’s top prosecutor to lead her to victory. Taylor has always been seen as the underdog against Jones, but while behind in fundraising she has kept within arms length, and is also the only one of the two endorsed by former attorney generals- she’s endorsed by both Mark Herring and Mary Sue Terry and has the backing of EMILY’s List. Her most controversial backer is Dominion Energy, with the energy company putting nearly $1 million into Taylor’s campaign, drawing criticism from the progressive wing of the party.
In the end, this race will likely be decided on how Northern Virginia shakes out. My gut tells me that Jones will romp in Hampton Roads again, this time by a far greater margin than in 2021, and I think he’s a decent favorite to take the vote in NOVA. I think Jones win this race, and does so comfortably.
Is Anyone a Favorite in Democrats Six-Way Primary for LG
As I said earlier, the LG primary for Democrats this year is similar to their primary for this same spot in 2021. Six candidates, with no real favorite.
Two more minor candidates do exist in Alex Bastani and Victor Salgado. Both have raised less than $300,000, and with the other four candidates all having raised and spent well a over $1 million each, I don’t think either will get close to the nomination.
So, that leaves us with four genuine contenders. State Senator Aaron Rouse, from the 22nd District in Virginia Beach, has been labeled the prohibitive favorite by many. Rouse has the Hampton Roads area to himself in this primary and his connections to the Southwestern part of the state as a former Virginia Tech football player may give him a leg up among the Democratic voters in Blacksburg and Roanoke.
He has an uphill climb to breakthrough in Richmond though. The Richmond area sees two candidates who either currently or who have represented the area previously. Former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and current area State Senator Ghazala Hashmi, who represents parts of the city and Chesterfield County in her seat, both are running.
Stoney has long been seen as a future statewide candidate in Virginia, starting when he was appointed by Terry McAuliffe to be Secretary of the Commonwealth at only 33 and then becoming the Mayor of Richmond at 36. Stoney would go on to serve two terms that didn’t come without controversy. The two recent incidents regarding water being shutdown in the city in the last few months have also been blamed on his administration.
But, Stoney does have the McAuliffe Money Machine (tm) behind him, as he’s been able to raise and spend the most money. He’s also gained endorsements from multiple state legislators and Pete Buttigieg (for some reason) that give him a good chance at taking the nomination.
Hashmi has squarely taken the progressive wing for this race. A long progressive record in the Virginia Senate has given Hashmi this lane much to herself, and the endorsements of much of Virginia’s most left wing legislators. As the only woman in the race, she also has the endorsement of EMILY’s list, putting her right at the top of the fundraising game with Stoney and Rouse. Hashmi has also made lots of overtures to NOVA voters, who are once again without a candidate in the frontrunners.
There is a candidate from NOVA in this race though who needs to be considered. Babur Lateef, the current Chairman of the Prince William County School Board, has raised $1.3 million and is the only candidate of note from the area. Lateef has always been in a weird spot this race. Prognosticators have never really put him in with the main contenders of Rouse, Stoney and Hashmi, but he’s also clearly far ahead of Bastani and Salgado. It makes him the wild card of this race, and with the amount he’s been able to raise and spend, I’m not going to count him out. He may be right there.
In the end, this isn’t like the 2021 race in that we still have, at least in my opinion, four very viable candidates in this race. By this point four years ago, it was very clearly a Rasoul v Ayala race, while this year it’s a tossup between four candidates. Personally, I do think Rouse is the very, VERY, slight favorite here. He’s got a clear advantage in Hampton Roads where I don’t think anyone else will be able to break through, and while there aren’t many Democrat voters left in the Southwest part of the state, I think he has a clear leg up there from his time as a Hokie that will provide him a connection to a lot of the voters in that area. It’s of course very plausible to see a world where Stoney wins, where Hashmi wins and one where yes, Lateef wins.
Looking at the House of Delegates
Unlike the last two cycles, there isn’t much to write home about in terms of primary races for House seats. As a prognosticator, that does make me sad.
For ones that should be close to watch (and that will matter), the GOP primary to replace Jed Arnold in the safely Republican HD-46 seems close between Adam Tolbert and Mitchell Cornett, as is the Republican primary to replace Nick Freitas between Karen Hamilton and Clay Jackson in a similarly safe HD-62.
The only Democratic primary of note in my opinion is in HD-75, where the three way primary to have the chance to face off against Carrie Coyner in a Harris won seat seems close on paper. Apart from those three, I’d keep your focus squarely on the two statewide primaries, those will likely be far more interesting.
Above is my current map for the House of Delegates. I already have Democrats keeping their majority and flipping HD-57 in the Richmond suburbs. Democrats clearly have a high floor and ceiling here, as a rout starting from the top of the ticket down could very easily lead to a Democrat supermajority in the House. It’s not particularly likely, as Democrats will have to take out multiple popular incumbents in that scenario, but it’s plausible.
Stick with me here on Elections by Ski as I’ll continue to post throughout the cycle in Virginia and in general. It’s good to be back. This will continue to be a free Substack- I have no delusions of grandeur here and this is for my own enjoyment as much as I hope it is informational to you all- so it’s free to use.